As the tea gardens of Upper Assam sway under a crisp winter breeze, a revolution is brewing in the Brahmaputra Valley. Just months away from the 2026 Assembly elections, the Indian National Congress, long written off as a relic of the past is showing signs of resurgence under the dynamic leadership of Gaurav Gogoi. The 43-year-old Lok Sabha MP from Jorhat and son of three-time Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has transformed from a national voice in Parliament to a grassroots warrior, rallying a fractured opposition and tapping into simmering public discontent. With the BJP’s iron grip facing cracks from anti-incumbency, youth frustration and economic woes, people are whispering: Could this be the year Congress reclaims Dispur? The numbers, narratives and on-ground momentum suggest it’s not just possible.. it’s probable.
Gaurav Gogoi isn’t starting from scratch; he’s reigniting a flame. His father Tarun Gogoi’s 15-year tenure (2001–2016) is etched in Assamese memory as a golden era of stability amid insurgency and floods. Surveys from early 2025 paint a vivid picture: A Vote Vibe LLP poll of over 10,000 respondents showed Gogoi neck-and-neck with incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in the CM preference race – 45.6% to 44.8%.
Remarkably, Gogoi led by 9% among women voters and 7% among first-time voters aged 18–24, segments that could swing 20–25 seats in the 126-member Assembly. 
Appointed Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president on May 26, 2025, Gogoi wasted no time. He oraganized a massive reshuffle, forming a 19-member Political Affairs Committee (PAC) stacked with veterans like former PCC chiefs Bhupen Borah and Ripun Bora alongside MPs Pradyut Bordoloi and Rakibul Hussain.
Three new working presidents; Jakir Hussain Sikdar, Roselina Tirkey and Pradip Sarkar were inducted to broaden the party’s ethnic and regional appeal.
This isn’t cosmetic; it’s a war chest. Congress, which held just 29 seats in 2021 (up from a dismal 26 in 2016), now boasts 26 MLAs and is targeting 50+ through booth-level rebuilding.
Gogoi’s pan-Assam appeal comes from his Ahom (indigenous) roots, countering BJP’s “Bhumiputra” narrative. In Upper Assam home to 40% of seats and Gogoi’s stronghold activism for khilonjiya (indigenous) rights has surged. A July 2025 Congress outreach in Jorhat drew 5,000 attendees with locals chanting ‘Juj eikhon hobo’ (This time, we fight).
X posts from youth leaders calls him the youth’s voice against BJP’s empty promises.
His 2024 Lok Sabha win in Jorhat by 1.12 lakh votes flipped a BJP bastion, signaling a 5–7% urban youth shift toward Congress.
Anti-Incumbency and Voter FatigueThe BJP’s dominance: 60 seats in 2021 boosted by allies to 75 feels unshakable on paper. But dig deeper and fissures emerge. Assam’s unemployment rate hovers at 6.6% (CMIE data, Q3 2025), with youth joblessness at 18.2% double the national average.
Despite schemes like Orunodoi (cash transfers reaching 1.3 million women), 56% of first-time voters (a 2025 Lokniti-CSDS survey) people from all castes said their biggest complaint was the lack of jobs.
Himanta Biswa Sarma’s aggressive style from ‘Operation Sindoor’ raids to personal attacks on Gogoi’s family has backfired. A February 2025 controversy over Gogoi’s wife’s alleged Pakistan links drew ridicule, with Gogoi retorting, ‘If she’s ISI, I’m RAW.’
X sentiment analysis (from 500+ posts, November 2025) shows 62% viewing Sarma as “overreaching,” eroding his 55% approval rating (down from 68% in 2023).
Panchayat polls in May 2025 were BJP’s “semi-final” triumph – NDA swept 300/397 Zila Parishad seats.
But zoom in: Congress held firm in Muslim-majority Lower Assam (e.g., 15/27 seats in Dhubri) and independents (often anti-BJP proxies) grabbed 28 seats.
Sarma’s goal of winning 100 seats seems overconfident, especially when the 2025 floods have displaced 2.5 million people; an issue Congress keeps highlighting.
United opposition and strategic alliances fragmentation sank Congress in 2021; unity could redeem it in 2026. On November 12, 2025, Gogoi hosted a pivotal meeting with seven parties – Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), CPI, CPI(ML), Anchalik Gana Morcha and All-Party Hill Leaders’ Conference reviving the Asom Sonmilito Morcha.
‘We’re uniting to end BJP’s atrocities, Gogoi said vowing a common minimum program on governance, corruption and indigenous rights.
This isn’t the failed Mahajot of 2021; it’s leaner, meaner. AJP’s Lurinjyoti Gogoi (no relation) brings anti-CAA fire; Raijor Dal’s Akhil Gogoi adds youth muscle. Targeting 35–40 seats for AIUDF (Muslim vote bank) could consolidate 25% of the electorate, preventing splits that cost Congress 10–15 seats last time.
A selective pact with AIUDF in 20 Lower Assam seats could flip 8–10, while hill parties secure 5 in Karbi Anglong. Gogoi’s ‘Raijor Padulit, Raijor Congress’ campaign, door-to-door in 5,000 villages since August has enrolled 2 lakh new members, per APCC records.
Assam’s 28 million voters include 4 million aged 18–24 . BJP’s infrastructure push (e.g., Rs 500 crore projects in Upper Assam, July 2025) impresses, but delivery lags: Only 1.2 lakh jobs created in 2024 against a 5 lakh promise.
Gogoi’s parliamentary fire leading the 2023 no-confidence motion resonates: ‘Modi’s silence on Manipur is Assam’s neglect.’ Videos of his speeches have 10 million views on X, with youth handles like @IYCAssam predicting “Gaurav for CM.”
Women voters, whose turnout hit 82% in 2024 up 12% from 2019 are Gogoi’s biggest advantage. Orunodoi helps, but scandals like the 2025 ‘syndicate’ arrests (alleged BJP-linked corruption) alienate. Gogoi’s focus on education (e.g., critiquing “Advantage Assam” gaps) wins 52% female support in polls. Tea tribes (10% of voters, 25 seats) are pivotal. BJP’s ST status pledge fizzled; Congress counters with land pattas and job centers. In Tinsukia, a September 2025 rally drew 8,000 Adivasis; a 20% jump from 2021.
ST communities (Bodo, Mising, etc.) add 15 seats; Gogoi’s pledges on autonomy could net 70% of their vote, per internal APCC data.
Congress needs 64 seats; with allies, 45–50 solo wins suffice. Targets: 18 in Upper Assam (youth surge), 15 in Lower (Muslim consolidation), 10 in Barak Valley (AIUDF tie-up) and 7 in hills.
Risks? BJP’s cash machine (Rs 1,200 crore war chest) and EVM fears. Gogoi’s fearless line — ‘Sarma is scared; we’ll remove him’ fires up his base.
As polls near, Assam hums with hope. “People want change,” Gogoi said in a November 14 rally. ‘2026 is ours.’
If momentum holds, the Brahmaputra might just flow Congress blue again. The battle’s on and for the first time in a decade, it’s anyone’s game.
